OP-ED | GLOBAL ECONOMY

The "Baleine" Mirage: When Oil Sovereignty Leaves the Ivorian Citizen Behind

By Oudi one, The Neophyte Special Contributor, Abidjan

The story reads like an industrial fairy tale. In less than two years, Côte d’Ivoire has transformed a subsea discovery into an oil giant named "Baleine" (Whale). An "Elephant" field boasting 2.5 billion barrels, a "net-zero" carbon footprint, and a record-breaking production timeline. For the Ivorian government, it is a display of political and financial "maestria." But behind the dizzying figures and victory speeches, a persistent question remains: for whom is this whale truly swimming?

The Audacity of Billions

What stands out in the Baleine project is the incredible financial audacity displayed by the administration in Abidjan. To ensure that the national oil company, PETROCI, was not reduced to a mere spectator, the State deployed a monumental sovereign guarantee of 10 billion euros.

It was a masterstroke. By guaranteeing these investments, Côte d’Ivoire successfully renegotiated its slice of the pie, increasing its stake from 10% to over 22%. This "maestria," driven by backroom architects and an iron political will, proved that when a sector promises hard currency and dollar-denominated returns, the State can be as agile and determined as a Silicon Valley multinational.

The Housing Paradox

Yet, this agility vanishes the moment one leaves the coastline and enters the working-class neighborhoods of Abidjan. The contrast is striking, almost cruel. How can one explain that a regime capable of guaranteeing 10 billion euros to extract oil at a depth of 2,000 meters is unable to mobilize even one billion to guarantee a massive social housing program?

The standard responses are "risk," "profitability," or "solvency." But is the social risk of an entire generation unable to afford a home not greater than the financial risk of a deep-water well? If the State can woo giants like Eni or Vitol with red carpets and sovereign guarantees, why can it not attract global construction majors with the same resolve? Housing in Côte d’Ivoire remains the poor relation of development, left to undercapitalized local developers, whereas the public-private partnership model of Baleine could have been the blueprint for an urban revolution.

Electricity: The Price of Irony

The ultimate argument used to justify the Baleine project was energy independence. The gas from Baleine was supposed to feed our power plants and lighten the burden on Ivorian households. The reality? In January 2024, while the oil was already flowing, electricity rates jumped by 10%. We are learnedly told that the sector’s debt must be "wiped clean."

This is where the shoe pinches. Côte d’Ivoire’s macroeconomic success—the growth that charms the IMF and international investors—does not "trickle down." It serves to repay the infrastructure used to produce the wealth in the first place. It is a snake eating its own tail: we go into debt to produce energy that ultimately costs the citizen more.

Toward Social Sovereignty

True "maestria" is only complete when it improves the lives of the many. Oil sovereignty must not be an end in itself, but a means to an end. As long as PETROCI’s revenues and the State’s signature are not used to guarantee zero-interest mortgages or to effectively stabilize the cost of living, "Baleine" will remain a prestigious trophy on a ministry wall. Meanwhile, the average Ivorian will continue to drown in the rising tide of expenses.

It is time for the audacity the government displayed at sea to reach the dry land. The real discovery will not be oil, but the will to use this financial power to house and feed the people.

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Signed: Oudi one, The Neophyte

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