USA : Consequences of Disrupting the International Order and Serious Violations by Donald Trump and the United States in 2026

 

Consequences of Disrupting the International Order and Serious Violations by Donald Trump and the United States in 2026
1. General Context: Disruptions to the International Order Under Trump in 2025–2026Since returning to the White House in January 2025, Donald Trump has pursued an aggressive foreign policy, often described as "neo-isolationist" yet marked by unilateral military interventions. This includes massive tariffs, withdrawals from international institutions (e.g., certain UN bodies), and direct military actions. These moves have undermined the post-1945 multilateral order based on alliances like NATO and international norms (humanitarian law, non-interference).
Key global consequences include:

• Erosion of alliances — Tensions within NATO, with European allies fearing the "end of the Alliance" due to unilateral U.S. actions.
• Escalation of conflicts — Heightened risks of regional wars, including in Latin America and the Middle East.
• Economic impacts — Tariffs on China and others have disrupted global trade, creating persistent uncertainty in 2026.
• Alleged violations — Accusations of crimes against humanity (e.g., lethal strikes in Venezuela) and aggression (threats against Greenland), potentially falling under the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC), though the U.S. is not a member.

These actions align with a strategy of "remaking the world order" through executive orders (over 227 signed since 2025), prioritizing U.S. national security over international norms.2. Detailed Analysis of Specific Cases and Their Consequencesa. Nicolás Maduro and Venezuela: Direct Military Intervention

• Facts and Violations — On January 3, 2026, U.S. special forces (Delta Force) launched Operation "Absolute Resolve," capturing Maduro in Caracas through massive airstrikes. Maduro, accused of "narco-terrorism" and drug trafficking, pleaded not guilty in a New York court on January 5, claiming he was "kidnapped." The U.S. justifies this under the Monroe Doctrine (hemispheric control) and concerns over Chinese and Russian influence in Venezuela.
  • Serious violations: This constitutes armed interference in a sovereign state, potentially an "act of aggression" under international law (Rome Statute of the ICC). Experts like former ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo have raised concerns about crimes against humanity, including strikes on civilians and Venezuelan vessels since September 2025.
• Immediate Consequences:
  • Geopolitical — Venezuela is now under prolonged U.S. "supervision," with American companies extracting oil. This has led to arrests in Venezuela of operation supporters and threats from Colombia (President Petro challenging Trump). Tensions with China, seen as a counterweight in Latin America.
  • Economic — Trump plans long-term U.S. management of Venezuela to boost American oil reserves, while imposing reciprocal tariffs on countries buying Russian oil (e.g., India).
  • Humanitarian — Refugees fleeing to the Caribbean (e.g., U.S.-Dominica agreements). Risk of a "blueprint" for interventions against Cuba or elsewhere.
• Hidden Aspects — The operation also targeted Chinese influence. U.S. sanctions on the ICC (2025 executive orders) shield Trump from investigations, potentially concealing evidence of violations.

b. Greenland: Threats of Annexation and Atlantic Crisis

• Facts and Violations — Trump has reiterated his desire to acquire Greenland (a Danish territory), suggesting "military options" if needed. Discussions with Denmark and Greenland are scheduled for January 14, 2026, including offers like $100,000 per Greenlander for secession. Trump mocks Greenland's defense as "two dog sleds," justifying takeover to counter Russia and China.
  • Violations: Threats of force against a NATO ally breach the non-aggression principle (UN Charter Article 2(4)). Scenarios for "bloodless" takeover involve economic pressure or U.S. intelligence operations.
• Immediate Consequences:
  • Alliances — Existential crisis for NATO; the EU is bolstering Greenland's defenses (troops, ships, aircraft). Denmark accuses the U.S. of "turning its back" on the Alliance.
  • Strategic — U.S. defense budget potentially rising to $1.5 trillion by 2027 to fund acquisition. Risk of NATO's collapse if invasion occurs.
  • Environmental — Control of Arctic resources (oil, rare earth minerals), but at the cost of heightened climate instability.
• Hidden Aspects — U.S. intelligence has provided data for "strategic developments." Inflated budgets may mask secret negotiations.

c. Iran: Escalation of Tensions and Threats of Strikes

• Facts and Violations — Massive protests in Iran for weeks, with over 544 deaths reported by rights groups. Trump threatens "very strong military options" if repression continues, with U.S. military buildup in the Middle East (equipment, aircraft). Iran accuses the U.S. of fueling unrest; Tehran is ready for "war or dialogue."
  • Violations: Potential support for "foreign elements" breaches non-interference; threats of strikes (cyber, targeted) risk war crimes if civilians are hit.
• Immediate Consequences:
  • Regional — Risk of attacks on U.S. bases; Israel on high alert. Protests tied to economic woes and support for proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah).
  • Global — Tensions with allies (e.g., Germany urging caution). Possible U.S. intervention before negotiations.
  • Humanitarian — Internet blackouts, violent repression; U.S. and democracies back protesters.
• Hidden Aspects — Secret U.S.-Iran contacts for talks; military buildup masks options like preemptive strikes.

d. Other Cases "Suspected or Hidden from the Public"

• Cuba, Yemen, etc. — Implicit threats against Cuba post-Venezuela; tensions in Yemen involving pro-Saudi vs. pro-Emirati factions. Trump predicts invasions (e.g., Cuba in 2026).
• Hidden — ICC sanctions protect against probes; "Hague Invasion Act" authorizes force to free Americans. Universal jurisdiction (Germany, Spain) could target Trump post-presidency.

3. Hypothetical Scenario of a Reversal Against the TroublemakersA plausible reversal scenario against Trump and the U.S., based on geopolitical analyses (e.g., Chatham House, Crisis Group):

• Phase 1: Diplomatic Isolation (Mid-2026) — The EU imposes sanctions on the U.S. over Greenland threats and bolsters Arctic defenses. NATO suspends cooperation; Denmark invokes Article 5 if aggression occurs. China and Russia form an anti-U.S. coalition, supporting Iran/Venezuela via BRICS.
• Phase 2: Internal and Legal Backlash (Late 2026) — U.S. protests against "imperialism" grow amid economic damage from reciprocal tariffs. The ICC issues warrants against Trump (via Venezuelan jurisdiction). U.S. Supreme Court limits tariffs; Congress (potentially Democratic-majority post-midterms) blocks military funds.
• Phase 3: Escalation and Fall (2027) — U.S. strikes on Iran provoke retaliation (U.S. bases hit), leading to regional war. Allies withdraw support; UN condemns U.S. actions. Trump faces impeachment for violations; Maduro released via international deal. The U.S. becomes isolated, with the world order recentering around the EU and China.

This hypothetical illustrates how U.S. overreach could trigger a multilateral "boomerang," reinforcing international norms against unilateralism.
This analysis is based on current data; events evolve rapidly. For further details, consult the cited sourced.
Our interest focuses on the consequences of disruptions to the global order and serious violations attributed to Donald Trump and the United States, with emphasis on cases involving Nicolás Maduro (Venezuela), Greenland, Iran, and other elements potentially hidden from the public. This detailed analysis is grounded in recent geopolitical facts and expert assessments (as of January 12, 2026). Finally, we outlined a hypothetical scenario of a reversal against the "troublemakers" (interpreted here as the Trump administration and U.S. actions). The analysis aims to be objective and non-partisan, focused on observed facts.
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